NL EAST Preview

Before beginning my series of MLB division previews, I'd like to highlight my incredibly bad NCAA tourney predictions (yep, no way uconn was losing, and that 13 point UNLV win was a real barnburner). Serves me right for writing about college basketball when I've been mostly following baseball and the NBA for the last few months. Anyway on to the NL East Preview:

1st Place: New York Mets.

Why? They return the same time that should have ran away with the division last year before collapsing to the Phillies, except they replaced the veteran competence of Tom Glavine (13-8, 4.44, 89K's) with the Cy Young favorite firepower of Johan Santana (15-13, 3.33, 235K's against the much better offenses of the AL) and get Pedro back for the whole season. David Wright and Jose Reyes provide the best left side of the infield in the game, the Carlos's (Delgado and Beltran) bounce back from subpar 2007 performances, and John Maine and Oliver perez shore up the back of the rotation by repeating their solid seasons from last year. And Jimmy Rollins isn't repeating the career year he had last year.

What could go wrong? Ryan Church and Endy Chavez are terrible offensive options in left and right field. The offensive firepower of Reyes and Wright should make up for them, but the Mets have to be looking to add another bat in the outfield.

2nd Place: Philadelphia Phillies

Why? Ryan Howard and Chase Utley counter the Mets by providing the Phillies with the best offensive right side of the infield in baseball. Geoff Jenkins, Shane Victorino, and Pat Burrell provide some decent punch from the outfield, and despite the presence of Pedro "the Mexican Rob Deer" Feliz at third the Phillies should have the best offense in the NL. But the Phils won't be able to match the Mets pitching: its not a good sign when your number two starter is a guy you tried to turn into a closer last year (Brett Myers) and your number three is a guy who throws up radar gun readings less than twice his age (Jamie Moyer). Cole Hamels is a stud, but he's not Santana, and even if the Phillies match last season's offensive output their pitching isn't going to be enough to repeat as division champs.

What could go wrong? If Myers can't revert to his pre-2007 form and any of the big three of Rollins, Howard, or Utley gets injured or has a down year things could go downhill in a hurry. The Phillies win games by outscoring opponents despite mediocre pitching, not because they can keep their opponents from scoring, especially in the bandbox that is Citizens Bank Ballpark.

3rd Place: Atlanta Braves

Why? Mark Teixeira is going to hit a ton of homers and Brian McCann is one of the best offensive catchers in baseball, but I don't see the Braves matching their solid offense from last year. Chipper Jones is getting old and is not repeating last year's performance in terms of raw numbers (a 1.029!!! OPS) or staying healthy (513 at bats). Edgar Renteria was overpaid by the Tigers, but he did .332 with a .860OPS last year, numbers that aren't being replicated by his replacement, Yunel Escobar.

Meanwhile the pitching staff isn't getting any younger: Tim Hudson will probably come close to last year's numbers if he stays healthy, but soon to be 41 year old John Smoltz isn't throwing 200 innings with a 3.11 era and 198 K's again. Some are pointing to a resurgance by Tom Glavine but he had an ERA over 4.40 while playing in Shea last year...I just don't see the Braves having the pitching to keep up with the Mets nor the offense to keep up with the Phillies.

What could go wrong/right? If Chipper Jones and John Smoltz continue to defy age I can see a scenario where the Braves make a run at the division: the bullpen should be solid with new closer Rafael Soriano taking over the soft-tossing Bob Wickman, and if Jeff Franceour and Brian McCann continue to develop the Braves could really have something going. By the same token, if Smoltz and Jones really start to feel the effects of age, I could see this team going the opposite direction and chasing the Nationals and Marlins towards the divisional basement.

4th Place: Florida Marlins.

Why? Yes, they traded away Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera. But Willis, despite being from my hometown, is very overrated: we're talking about a guy who put up an ERA over 5.15 and a WHIP of 1.60 while throwing in a very friendly park for pitchers. He's going to get absolutely torched in the AL this year.

As for Cabrera, he will definitely be missed, but the Marlins are still going to be a very good offense team. Hanley Ramirez (.948 OPS, 51 SB's) is just as good, if not better, than Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins at short (it's crazy to think that the NL East teams have the three best shortstops in baseball). Cody Ross, Josh Willingham, and Jeremey Hermida give the fish the best offensive outfield in the division, and Mike Jacobs and Dan Uggla provide some power (if not much in the way of on-base skills) at first and second. The Marlins put up a team OPS of .784 in 2007, and in spite of losing Cabrera, its not hard to see them matching that this year if the young players continue to develop.

Pitching is going to make or break the Marlins in 2008: Scott Olsen has the stuff to be a number one starter, but he struggled mightily down the stretch last year and showed signs of overuse. Andrew Miller (acquired in the Willis/Cabrera trade) is supposedly one of the best prospects in baseball, but is young and unproven: he's looked good in spring training but in remains to be seen if he can get it done when games count. If Olsen, Miller, and the other young hurlers can get their stuff together, than watch out: the Marlins could surprise a lot of people and maybe even make a run at the division. But I think its far more likely that these guys have some growing pains and spend some time on the DL, as the Marlins compete but don't have enough to keep up with the Braves, Phillies, and Mets at the top of the division. But the Fish are definitely far closer to the top of the NL East than they are to the Nationals at the bottom.

Fifth Place: Washington Nationals.

Why? I really like offensive potential of the outfield with Elijah Dukes in left, Lastings Milledge in center, and Austin Kearns in right, and if Nick Johnson can come back from an injury plagued 2007 then the Nats will be solid at the infield corners with him and Ryan Zimmerman at third. But things get real ugly up the middle (Paul Loduca, Christian Guzman!!!, and Ronnie Belliard)...the 6-8 slots in this lineup are going to be downright frightening.

As for the pitching...ooof. After releasing John Patterson the Nationals have Royals reject Odalis Perez as their number one starter, and while Jason Bergmann and SHawn Hill showed some potential last year, this team is going to give up a ton of runs, and Hill is already on the shelf with elbow tendinitis this spring. Chad Cordero will be decent as always closing the ninth, but his save opportunities might be few and far between with the way the Nats' starters are going to pitch. The Nationals are without a doubt the worst team in the national league, and will be competing with the Orioles for the honor of picking first in the 2009 MLB draft. Maybe Peter Angelos was on to something when he didn't want to let the Nationals move to DC.