March Madness

Some thoughts on the upcoming NCAA tournament.

Best first round matchup:
Eight seed UNLV (27-7) vs. Nine seed Kent State (28-6), Midwest regional. Horizon League champion Kent State won the solid Horizon League and has wins over Illinois State (second highest RPI of teams that didn't make the tournament), George Mason, and St. Mary's. Mountain West champ UNLV has wins over San Diego, BYU...twice, New Mexico, and Nevada, and played Arizona tough when the Wildcats where still at full strength earlier in the season. But RPI says it all: Kent State is 21st, the Runnin' Rebels are 24th. Kansas (the one seed in that region) better watch out for its second round game.

Best first round matchup, seeds at least 5 apart edition:
11 seed Kansas State (20-11) vs. 6 seed USC (21-11). Michael Beasley vs. OJ Mayo. Two of the most highly touted freshmen in the country face off in a battle between the Trojans (red hot over the second half of the season) and the Wildcats (cold since beaten Kansas back in January). I think USC takes this game, but it should be interesting to watch these guys compete for NBA Draft position.

Most likely first round upset (11/6 minimum):
Baylor over Purdue. The Bears have a better RPI than the Boilermakers (43-45) and played in the tough Big 12, Purdue played in a weak Big 10 and has a history of mailing in games (losses to Illinois, Iowa State, and Wofford).

Most likely first round upset, greater than 6/11 edition:
Kentucky over Marquette. Kentucky has played extremely well since getting abused by Vanderbilt 93-52 back in February, only losing to Tennesse (2 seed, 2nd in RPI) by three on the road and to Georgia in the ridiculous SEC Tournament game that got delayed by over 12 hours by a tornado. Meanwhile Marquette only went 8-6 in away/neutral games this year, with only three of the wins against NCAA tournament teams.

Most likely absurd (14 or greater) first-round upset:
It probably won't happen, but if you forced me to pick a really high seed to pull a miracle upset I'd say Cornell (14) over Stanford (3). Call it a hunch and throw in a little hostility from a Cal Bears fan.

Predicted upset I'm totally not buying:
UCONN (4) is going to kill San Diego (13). The Torreos are ranked 94th in RPI...that's lower than every single 15 seed in the tournament. UCONN played in the toughest conference in the country and has an experience coach in Jim Calhoun. No way the Huskies lose this one, though I like the winner of the Drake/Western Kentucky game in the 2nd round.

5 seed or higher who has a chance to make the Final Four:
Drake Bulldogs. 10th in RPI, dominated the relatively strong Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, won over Butler on the road. They have a tough potential sweet sixteen matchup with UCLA but the Bruins have played somewhat iffy basketball down the stretch, almost blowing a couple of close ones.

First Number one seed to go down:
Kansas Jayhawks. They have an extremely tough matchup against the winner of the UNLV/Kent State game in the seocnd round, followed by a potential matchup with Clemson (on fire in the ACC tournament) or Vanderbilt (a winner over Tennessee in late February). And Wisconsin, Georgetown, or USC looming in the bottom half of the bracket. The Jayhawks' national championship drought is not ending in 2008.