Race for the Dem. Nomination: the basketball analogy

There can be no mistaking the fact that Obama laid an absolute smackdown on Hilary last night. He certainly does not have the nomination wrapped up, but for him to win Virginia and Maryland by the margins he did (and do as well as he did among women, whites, older people, stoned hippies, independent business owners making between 50,000 and 52,000 dollars a year, and just about every other group the political pundits care to come up with) is a very good sign for the Obama campaign. He is definitely in the driver's seat right now.

Since sports and politics are my two favorite things to write about these days, I think using a sports metaphor here is appropriate:

Obama is the NCAA tournament underdog taking a six point lead and possession into a timeout with around two minutes left to play against a top-seeded squad that plays some of the best defense in the country. Obama fills the role of team leader: everyone knew he was good, but nobody thought he could explode for 34 points and several clutch threes against this fundamentally sound favorite who has shut down every other opponent they've played so far this season. Sure, he might give them a run, but everyone just knew this favorite was going to go all the way and had filled out their brackets accordingly.

But now the underdog has the favorite on the ropes, the student section (Obama's longtime supporters) are going absolutely batshit crazy, the neutral crowd who just want to see some basketball (the Democratic establishment) are jumping on the bandwagon because they love seeing an underdog win and are tired of the same old boring basketball powers winning the title every year, the arena is rocking at a million decibles and Gus Johnson's head is about to explode he's getting so excited about the possibility of this upset.

Meanwhile the favored opponent, which got to the tournament on the strength of their fundamentals and defense (they don't do anything flashy but inevitably wear teams down over time with their general competence and solid play) is in all kinds of trouble. Their hardcore fans (people like Charles Schumer, Ted Strickland, Tom Vilsack, etc) have that "I can't believe this is happening, we were supposed to be a lock for the Final Four, we have three seniors who are guaranteed NBA first rounders starting!!!" look on their faces. The coach is desperately subbing in guys of the bench (Hilary firing her campaign manager) to try and light a fire under the team. Their game all year has been playing fundamentally sound ball and forcing other teams to make mistakes, but now they need fire and creative energy, someone to step up and start making plays to get them back in the game.

So coming out of this timeout (the break between yesterday's Potomac primaries and the upcoming contests in Wisconsin and Hawaii) Obama is dribbling down the court with the ball with an six point lead and just under two minutes left in the game. This possession (the Wisconsin and Hawaii primaries next Tuesday) isn't do or die for him: after all, he's up by six. But a couple things can happen during this trip down the court.

1. Obama turns the ball over and Hilary takes it coast to coast for a quick dunk to cut the lead to four. Real world equivlent: Obama losing in Wisconsin. He still is up by four, but the crowd has been temporarily silenced and Hilary's team is up off the bench and shouting again. Its very much still a game and the underdog needs to respond.

2. Obama runs down the clock but bricks the shot, giving Hilary the ball back still down by six. She needs to make some baskets, but the crowd has quieted down a little bit and she still has some hope. Real world equivlent: Obama winning Wisconsin by a narrow margin, giving Hilary some hope. She still needs to make baskets quickly (win in Ohio and Texas) to catch up, and with good defense and a made shot or two Obama still should win, but things are certainly not over.

3. Obama runs the clock down to about 1:30 left, then drains a three Boom-Dizzle style in Hilary's eye to make it a nine point game. The crowd goes absolutely insane, Hilary's coach disgustedly calls another time out, and things are looking very, very dire in Clinton-land. Real world equivlent: Obama cleaning up in Wisconsin like he did in Virginia and Maryland. This scenario makes things very tough for Hilary: now down by 9, she needs to both start making threes (winning in Ohio, Texas, and probably Pennsylvania) and start fouling Obama (going negative) if she has any chance of winning now. At this point the only way the underog (Obama) is losing is if they cant make their free throws (winning in the remaining states that favor him and staying on message) and Clinton's desperation threes start falling: if he stays on his game it should be all over.

So there you have it: Obama (a huge basketball fan, for those of you who don't know), is walking the ball up the court, up by six, with a chance to all but put the game away. Does he have the killer instinct to drain that three? We'll find out next Tuesday.